Turning a Corner- October Newsletter 2022
Happy October and Happy 8th Anniversary to our blog and 7th Anniversary of our newsletter. The first newsletter was published in September 2015. It has evolved since then and it has been fun reporting all of the different things that the North Texas markets as well as national markets have experienced over the last seven years! From our rapid population, new construction, the popularity of barndominiums, the Texas ice storm, and the pandemic there’s been a lot to cover!
What’s happening now? We have been seeing and reporting the indicators signally a market shift within the past few months. Now, we are clearly turning a corner and the markets are shifting. The changes are more pronounced and evident as we are now in the fall and heading into the winter seasons. The market does have typical seasonal shifts and declines in the fall and winter seasons but this shift is much more significant than what we have seen in the last 5 years.
Let’s take a look at our local markets. The charts show the activity for September and at the end, we will have a sneak peek at October numbers! The median sales prices are still up from the same time last year but the increase is much less than what we have been seeing and all markets are down from the previous month. Most significant is the gain in supply. Supply is now up in all four counties, with Denton and Collin counties up 136.4% and 118.2% respectively, YoY. Note, this is a move toward a more stable market (4-6 months of supply). Inventory is still low but on the rise. The bidding wars are officially over and buyers have gained more power as sales are below the original price in all 4 counties. Here are the numbers:
Median Sales Price
Months of Inventory
Days on Market
Percent of Original Price
Volume
Sneak Peek- October
A couple of things to keep in mind when looking at these numbers.
- Every market and submarket is different. It is important to look to a real estate professional for your specific market and property.
- Housing has been appreciating at an unprecedented rate and was due for a correction. The market is not tanking but stabilizing.
- Mortgage rates are impacting buying power and decreasing demand.
- Some of this decline is seasonal and supply is still low as we head to a more balanced market.
Read 📖
Appraising Well in a Fast-Changing Market- Appraisal Buzz
Home prices are dropping like it’s 2009- HousingWire
Appraisal Reports Are Like Flipbooks-Cleveland Appraisal Blog
What is External Obsolescence?-Birmingham Appraisal Blog
Who is buying in today’s housing market?-Sacramento Appraisal Blog
Remote Work Drove Over 60% of House-Price Surge, Fed Study Finds– Bloomberg
5 Rules for Appraising Barndominiums– McKissock
Appraisers – Go on Vacation- RealWired
Understanding Desktop (Bifurcated or Hybrid) Appraisals – The Appraisal Journal
Long Have Appraisers Been Told– Working RE
Spotlighting Moonlighting– The Appraiser Coach
The Role of Appraisal Review in the Risk System – Appraisal Revisions– Appraisal Buzz
The Psychology of Real Estate Market Cycles-Appraisal Buzz
The Appraiser’s Role Isn’t to Kill Your Deal– NAR, Maureen Sweeney
Are home prices declining? What are appraisers saying?– Sacramento Appraisal Blog
The Housing Market Won’t Back Down (Quickly)- Housing Notes
Listen 🎧
Tax Planning in September?-The Appraiser Coach
What does it mean if a trainee signs a form?– Appraiser Talk
How appraisers think we can solve appraisal challenges– HousingWire Daily
Scott Reuter, Freddie Mac & Skap– Contributory Value Podcast
Home prices are finally starting to fall-HousingWire Daily
September 2022 Real Estate Appraisal Outlook with Kevin Hecht– Beyond the Numbers Podcast (MckIssock)
When appraisers pick comps, do they mainly consider how similar the features of the house are to the subject property house?– Appraiser Talk
Lender Work for Appraisers: Facts, Myths and Opportunities– Face Value Podcast (Appraisal Institute)
Logan Mohtashami on the honey badger labor market-HousingWire Daily
Watch 📺
Key Signals to Watch in a Volatile Real Estate Market– Altos Research
Market Change– Scott Cullen
Dr. Alimo & OPAL AI ScanTo3D-The Appraisal Update Podcast
Adjustments: What’s in Your Workfile?– Appraisal Buzz- Free Webinar
Bias and Subjectivity in Appraisal Reports– Bradford Technologies
11th Annual Housing Conference– AEI
Short Term Rental vs Residential Rental Webinar– OREP/Richard Hagar
Adjustments- What’s in Your Workfile? -Class Valuation/McKissock/DataMasters
The Impact of Hurricane Ian– Matt Simmons/Appraisal Buzz
As always, we will continue to watch our local markets as well as what is going on nationally. We will be watching the impact of rising rates, inflation, and economic data on the housing markets. If you have thoughts, comments or questions let us know. If you need appraisal services please contact us at www.dwslaterco.com.
About The Author
Shannon Slater
Shannon is a Certified Residential Real Estate Appraiser and serves as the Vice President of the DW Slater Company. She joined David at the DW Slater Company in 2006. Shannon graduated Cum Laude from the University of North Texas with a BA degree. Prior to joining the DW Slater Company, she was an Elementary School Teacher for the Pilot Point Independent School District. Shannon is an FHA Certified Appraiser. Shannon is a designated member of the National Association of Appraisers and a member of the Association of Texas Appraisers. In her free time, Shannon enjoys spending time with her family, singing in a local church choir, and tandem cycling with her husband.
Congratulations on 8 years!
Happy 8 years!!! Keep up the great work.
Very similar dynamic in my area with a sharp change in the median. I’m anxious to keep seeing stats in your area. Thanks for sharing.